Greater Toronto Area Leads Province in Economic Growth: Ontario Economic Update 2016
Scugog, ON, Dec 09, 2015: The most wide-reaching provincial economic forecast of the year, the Ontario Economic Update 2016, was released today by the Ontario Chamber of Commerce and the Credit Unions of Ontario, with support from Scugog Chamber of Commerce. According to the data, the Toronto Economic Region underwent an economic resurgence in 2015 and will continue to perform strongly over the next two years.
The Toronto Economic Region, which spans from Clarington to Milton, is projected to create 79,000 net new jobs by the end of 2015, after stagnant job growth numbers in 2014. Similarly, the projected unemployment rate for 2015 is 7.3 percent, down from 8.0 percent in 2014. Meanwhile, the labour force is projected to grow by 1.6 percent in 2015.
Most employment growth in 2015 has been in three service industries: professional, scientific and technical; finance, insurance and real estate; and transportation and warehousing. Some sectors saw notable declines, including manufacturing and public administration. The analysis suggests, however, that the public administration sector will probably see some growth over the coming years given the new federal government’s agenda.
Looking ahead, job growth in the Toronto Economic Region is forecast at 1.7 percent in 2016 and 1.5 percent in 2017, while the unemployment rate will shrink to 6.7 percent by 2017. The high-profile Toronto housing market continues to be red hot. It led all Ontario regions with the largest average price increase of over nine percent in 2015. The average residential sales price in the Toronto Economic Region will rise to a projected $680,000 in 2016, up over $100,000 since 2014.
According to the province wide data, most areas of Ontario will enjoy improving economic conditions in the coming year. Growth will be driven in part by an uptick in exports, the result of a stronger U.S. economy and a low Canadian dollar. Government fiscal policy will also be a key driver, as federal and provincial infrastructure commitments will stimulate growth across a variety of sectors.
Julie Curran, Chair , Scugog Chamber of Commerce: “ The forecasting for the future is looking brighter. With solid investment in infrastructure, especially in technology infrastructure our Municipalities and Province will be able to building a stronger future for our businesses and families to compete globally. Home grown job solutions are a key to our long term goals and strategies.”
Allan O’Dette, President & CEO of Ontario Chamber of Commerce: “Ontario businesses are helping Ontario emerge stronger from the downturn. However, our economy still faces significant challenges. In order to generate sustained economic growth, government must invest in infrastructure, close the skills gap, and ensure that input costs do not stifle investment or job creation.”
Helmut Pastrick, Chief Economist, Central 1 Credit Union: “Ontario and its regional economies will grow at a moderate but faster pace through 2017 aided by favourable external factors such as the low dollar and interest rates and an improving U.S. economy. Most regions will participate and contribute to Ontario’s improved economic prospects though differences exist among regions. Resource-based regions will be weighed down by poor metal markets.”
Key Facts and Highlights:
● Transportation and warehousing employment continues to be a key economic driver. Employment in the sector will be up almost 10 percent this year following an 11 percent drop last year. Despite recent variability, the longer term trend continues to rise.
● The Toronto Economic Region leads all regions in average residential sale price increases, with 9.2 growth in 2015. The average residential sale price in the region is now $626,000. Toronto prices have pushed the growth in the provincial average residential sale price to 7.3 percent this year.
● The Toronto Economic Region leads all regions in population growth, with projected population increases of 1.4 and 1.5 percent in 2016 and 2017. The region now accounts for nearly 47 percent of the provincial population.
Download the full economic outlook PDF below.
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OCC media contact information:
Senior Communications Advisor
t. 416-482-5222 ext 2380